Thermally induced convective circulation and precipitation over an isolated volcano

Intense rainfall over active volcanoes is known to trigger dangerous volcanic hazards, from remobilizing loose volcanic surface material into lahars or mudflows to initiating explosive activity including pyroclastic flows at certain dome-forming volcanoes. However, the effect of the heated volcanic surface on the atmospheric circulation, including any feedback with precipitation, is unknown. This is investigated here, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The recent activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, is a well-documented case of such rainfall–volcano interaction and is used as a template for these experiments. The volcano is represented in the model by an idealized Gaussian mountain, with an imposed realistic surface temperature anomaly on the volcano summit. A robust increase in precipitation over the volcano is simulated for surface temperature anomalies above approximately 40°C, an area-average value that is exceeded at the SHV. For wind speeds less than 4 m s−1 and a range of realistic atmospheric conditions, the precipitation increase is well above the threshold required to trigger volcanic hazards (5–10 mm h−1). Hence, the thermal atmospheric forcing due to an active, but nonerupting, volcano appears to be an important factor in rainfall–volcano interactions and should be taken account of in future hazard studies

Meteorological buoy observations from the central Iceland Sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 3199–3208, doi:10.1002/2014JD022584.We present the first continuous in situ atmospheric observations from the central Iceland Sea collected from a meteorological buoy deployed for a 2 year period between 23 November 2007 and 21 August 2009. We use these observations to evaluate the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and demonstrate that it represented low-level meteorological fields and surface turbulent fluxes in this region very well. The buoy observations showed that moderate to strong winds were common from any direction, while wind speeds below 5 ms−1 were relatively rare. The observed low-level air temperature and surface heat fluxes were related to the wind direction with cold-air outbreaks most common from the northwest. Mean wintertime turbulent heat fluxes were modest (<60 Wm−2), but the range was substantial. High heat flux events, greater than 200 Wm−2, typically occurred every 1–2 weeks in the winter, with each event lasting on average 2.5 days with an average total turbulent heat flux of ∼200 Wm−2 out of the ocean. The most pronounced high heat flux events over the central Iceland Sea were associated with cold-air outbreaks from the north and west forced by a deep Lofoten Low over the Norwegian Sea.This work was funded in part by the Ocean and Climate Change Institute at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NSF grant OCE-1433958.2015-10-2

A parameterization of Greenland's tip jets suitable for ocean or coupled climate models

Greenland's tip jets are low-level, high wind speed jets forced by an interaction of the synoptic-scale atmospheric flow and the steep, high orography of Greenland. These jets are thought to play an important role in both preconditioning for, and triggering of, open-ocean convection in the Irminger Sea. However, the relatively small spatial scale of the jets prevents their accurate representation in the relatively low resolution (~1 degree) atmospheric (re-)analyses which are typically used to force ocean general circulation models (e.g. ECMWF ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses, or products based on these). Here we present a method of ‘bogussing’ Greenland's tip jets into such surface wind fields and thus, via bulk flux formulae, into the air-sea turbulent flux fields. In this way the full impact of these mesoscale tip jets can be incorporated in any ocean general circulation model of sufficient resolution. The tip jet parameterization is relatively simple, making use of observed linear gradients in wind speed along and across the jet, but is shown to be accurate to a few m s-1 on average. The inclusion of tip jets results in a large local increase in both the heat and momentum fluxes. When applied to a 1-dimensional mixed-layer model this results in a deepening of the winter mixed-layer of over 300 m. The parameterization scheme only requires 10 meter wind speed and mean sea level pressure as input fields; thus it is also suitable for incorporation into a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model at the coupling stage

Foehn warming distributions in nonlinear and linear flow regimes: a focus on the Antarctic Peninsula

The structure of lee-side warming during foehn events is investigated as a function of cross-barrier flow regime linearity. Two contrasting cases of westerly flow over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are considered – one highly nonlinear, the other relatively linear. Westerly flow impinging on the AP provides one of the best natural laboratories in the world for the study of foehn, owing to its maritime setting and the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) providing an expansive, homogeneous and smooth surface on its east side. Numerical simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (at 1.5 km grid size) and aircraft observations are utilized. In case A, relatively weak southwesterly cross-Peninsula flow and an elevated upwind inversion dictate a highly nonlinear foehn event, with mountain wave breaking observed. The consequent strongly accelerated downslope flow leads to high-amplitude warming and ice-shelf melt in the immediate lee of the AP. However this foehn warming diminishes rapidly downwind due to upward ascent of the foehn flow via a hydraulic jump. In case C, strong northwesterly winds dictate a relatively linear flow regime. There is no hydraulic jump and strong foehn winds are able to flow at low levels across the entire ice shelf, mechanically mixing the near-surface flow, preventing the development of a strong surface inversion and delivering large fluxes of sensible heat to the ice shelf. Consequently, in case C ice-melt rates are considerably greater over the LCIS as a whole than in case A. Our results imply that although nonlinear foehn events cause intense warming in the immediate lee of mountains, linear foehn events will commonly cause more extensive lee-side warming and, over an ice surface, higher melt rates. This has major implications for the AP, where recent east-coast warming has led to the collapse of two ice shelves immediately north of the LCIS

Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles

Observations of turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture from low-level aircraft data are presented. Fluxes are calculated using the eddy covariance technique from flight legs typically ∼40 m above the sea surface. Over 400 runs of 2 min (∼12 km) from 26 flights are evaluated. Flight legs are mainly from around the British Isles although a small number are from around Iceland and Norway. Sea-surface temperature (SST) observations from two on-board sensors (the ARIES interferometer and a Heimann radiometer) and a satellite-based analysis (OSTIA) are used to determine an improved SST estimate. Most of the observations are from moderate to strong wind speed conditions, the latter being a regime short of validation data for the bulk flux algorithms that are necessary for numerical weather prediction and climate models. Observations from both statically stable and unstable atmospheric boundary-layer conditions are presented. There is a particular focus on several flights made as part of the DIAMET (Diabatic influence on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms) project. Observed neutral exchange coefficients are in the same range as previous studies, although higher for the momentum coefficient, and are broadly consistent with the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm, as well as the surface exchange schemes used in the ECMWF and Met Office models. Examining the results as a function of aircraft heading shows higher fluxes and exchange coefficients in the across-wind direction, compared to along-wind (although this comparison is limited by the relatively small number of along-wind legs). A multi-resolution spectral decomposition technique demonstrates a lengthening of spatial scales in along-wind variances in along-wind legs, implying the boundary-layer eddies are elongated in the along-wind direction. The along-wind runs may not be able to adequately capture the full range of turbulent exchange that is occurring because elongation places the largest eddies outside of the run length

Numerical modelling of the evolution of the boundary layer during a radiation fog event

Despite the impact it has on human activity, particularly transport, accurate forecasting of fog remains a major challenge for numerical weather prediction models. The complex interaction between various physical processes, many of which are parametrised and highly sensitive to small changes, is one of the key reasons for poor fog forecasts. One challenge for numerical models is predicting the structure of the boundary layer, which often undergoes a transition from statically stable to weakly unstable during the life cycle of a fog event. The recent local and non‐local fog experiment (LANFEX) has provided a new comprehensive and detailed observational dataset of fog events. Here, a case study has been used as the basis for an investigation of the effect of the humidity of the residual layer and wind speed on the stability of the boundary layer during a fog event. We find a very high sensitivity in the timing of the stability transition during the fog event; for example, a +3% relative humidity perturbation results in a delay of almost 3h, while a 0.45ms−1 10m wind speed perturbation results in a delay of more than 8h

Orographic effects on the transport and deposition of volcanic ash: A case study of Mt. Sakurajima, Japan

Volcanic ash is a major atmospheric hazard that has a significant impact on local populations and international aviation. The topography surrounding a volcano affects the transport and deposition of volcanic ash, but these effects have not been studied in depth. Here we investigate orographic impacts on ash transport and deposition in the context of the Sakurajima volcano in Japan, using the chemistry-resolving version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Sakurajima is an ideal location for such a study because of the surrounding mountainous topography, frequent eruptions, and comprehensive observing network. At Sakurajima, numerical experiments reveal that across the 2–8ϕ grain size range, the deposition of “medium-sized” ash (3–5ϕ) is most readily affected by orographic flows. The direct effects of resolving fine-scale orographic phenomena are counteracting: mountain-induced atmospheric gravity waves can keep ash afloat, while enhanced downslope winds in the lee of mountains (up to 50% stronger) can force the ash downward. Gravity waves and downslope winds were seen to have an effect along the dispersal path, in the vicinity of both the volcano and other mountains. Depending on the atmospheric conditions, resolving these orographic effects means that ash can be transported higher than the initial injection height (especially for ash finer than 2ϕ), shortly after the eruption (within 20 min) and close to the vent (within the first 10 km), effectively modifying the input plume height used in an ash dispersal model—an effect that should be taken into account when initializing simulations

Precision Medicine in Lifestyle Medicine: The Way of the Future?

Precision medicine has captured the imagination of the medical community with visions of therapies precisely targeted to the specific individual’s genetic, biological, social, and environmental profile. However, in practice it has become synonymous with genomic medicine. As such its successes have been limited, with poor predictive or clinical value for the majority of people. It adds little to lifestyle medicine, other than in establishing why a healthy lifestyle is effective in combatting chronic disease. The challenge of lifestyle medicine remains getting people to actually adopt, sustain, and naturalize a healthy lifestyle, and this will require an approach that treats the patient as a person with individual needs and providing them with suitable types of support. The future of lifestyle medicine is holistic and person-centered rather than technological